Forecasting was the topic we covered in class this week. It was a little dry, and I got lost in the technicality of it at times. The idea that forecasting is different from prediction is something I have never really considered before. When I think about forecasting I usually think about predicting the future and spelling out what is ‘supposed’ to happen. But I realised that predicting is really quite foolish, based on opinion rather than fact, and many times is unreliable and unfounded. Forecasting on the other hand, can be scoping out trends and other relevant information in order to make an informed (though probably still not entirely accurate) attempt at identifying future technologies. Which can be useful, in a world that moves so quickly.
Projecting is also another idea I never really gave much thought to, but now that I have I feel that we can’t be restricted by our projections for the future. Just because something progressed at a specific pace in the past, does not mean that it should have to be confined by this pace when considering future developments. I would say that this sort of thinking is rather backward and counter productive as it doesn’t allow for the massive leaps in technology that we are capable of, and have come to expect.
This lesson I could not really grasp the whole picture so I was rather lost, but nevertheless, discussions in class are always interesting. One point brought up was the idea of over-reliance on forecasting. While indeed it can sometimes be useful to help prepare us for the future, there is always a risk in trying to figure out the exact way things are going to take place, and we cannot allow ourselves to be lulled into a false sense of complacency based on a forecasted future. Basically, we need to be ready for anything, because technology is seldom predictable and undeniably dynamic.
This week was possibly the best for me so far as we turned our attention to the new emerging technologies that could change the world as we know it in the years to come. The lesson started off for me on an excellent note, with the very inspirational (and life re-evaluating) quotes about imagination and creating our dreams. This sparked off the chorus of ‘I believe I can fly’ in my head in Hollywood fashion, which I must say improved my mood considerably. It also made me think of another quote:
This week we talked a lot about solar energy as a source for future energy needs. Realising what Germany has done and hearing in understandable terms how much solar energy could contribute to solving the problem of a lack of energy sources was pretty eye-opening. The possibilities for the world are incredible if we really can effectively harness the energy that is available around us. It brought to mind (somewhat embarrassingly) my science textbook from primary 4 which constantly reiterated ‘Energy is all around us, it cannot be created or destroyed, only transferred’. And that is really what we have to do, transfer the energy. And solar power is one tremendous way to do that.
A couple of years ago, there were rumours floating around that HDB would actually start installing solar panels on the roofs of all the apartments buildings so as to harness the energy potential. However, while this idea never quite took off, there was actually provision made for the installation of solar panels and some were even installed. A couple of reports can be read below:
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1068920/1/.html
http://www.asiaone.com/Business/My%2BMoney/Property/Story/A1Story20090223-123997.html
So actually, Singapore has made some attempts, although they may be better described as half-hearted stabs at utilising solar energy. But the general opinion towards it is that it is an unnecessary expense, as there is the tendency to be short-sighted. But as we discussed in class, the reality is that if we switch to solar energy sooner, we may even be able to save in the long-run. And saving is something all Singaporeans are extremely fond of. Therefore I believe that in order to move towards a system more reliant on solar energy, there needs to be the appropriate publicity that demonstrates to the public exactly how beneficial solar energy can be. Not just to the government, but also to us, in the sense that it is a sustainable energy source and can lessen, if not eliminate our woes from the ‘great energy countdown’. (i.e. approaching the point where we will be out of fossil fuels)
Another hindrance to the adaptation of solar energy in Singapore is probably the lack of confidence in solar energy. Especially since it is only recently gaining popularity, there is the slight hesitation on the part of the authorities, who remain skeptical about the effectiveness of solar energy in replacing traditional energy sources altogether. But hopefully in time to come, this will improve and the general opinion towards solar energy will become more positive and help people realise the immense potential that lies in solar power.
But then again, having said all that, we must also be careful when implementing new technologies, as with all new ways of doing things there will always be risks. Ideally, we will be able to reconcile the concern for the environment with the concerns for the economy (as always) and implement it in such a way that the timing is beneficial or at least causes the least disruption to society. This is something we will have to think through, especially here in Singapore where everything really needs to be carefully thought-through and planned in order to avoid upsetting the delicate balance that seems to work so well for us.
- 1. Background/Introduction
1.1 Disaster relief efforts: What is involved
Disaster relief has become one of the most important areas to address in a world where disasters are increasing in frequency and in magnitude, and the prevalence of technology provides little excuse for being unable to combat them effectively.
As Figure 1 illustrates, disasters are more of a concern now, more than ever. Disasters are in fact one of the leading causes of death worldwide [cite], as they are devastating in impact. Even when anticipated, the extent or nature of the damage can never be entirely predicted, resulting in the widespread need for adequate disaster response and recovery efforts-which is largely lacking, even today. However, the situation has indeed improved significantly with advancements in technology over the years, not least such as Geographical Information System (GIS).
Figure 1 (Bournay, 2005)
According to the Virtual University of Small States in the Commonwealth (VUSSC), Disaster Management can be divided into four main aspects – Mitigation, Preparedness, Response and Recovery (VUSSC, 2009). This paper however, shall focus on the aftermath of disasters: Response and Recovery. This is because disaster relief efforts have lost some potential as many countries choose instead to focus on the ‘prevention’ aspect of disaster management, rather than the ‘cure’. While this is certainly a valid approach, it should not detract from the importance of provision for the resulting devastation of disasters, which it has done.
Revitalizing the potential of response and recovery efforts is what is essential, and is only slowly gaining ascendancy in recent years. This, I believe, has to do in part with the ineffectiveness of past disaster response attempts, resulting in a global mentality that combating a disaster after it has struck is somewhat ridiculous. (I will further expand on this in the section ‘Historical Perspective’) However, this outlook fails to realize that the advances in technology can contribute to this arena as significantly as they have to every other aspect of our lives. Technology has traditionally taken a backseat in response and recovery attempts, but we are on the horizon of a complete overhaul. And pioneering this change is GIS technology.
Response and Recovery involves the immediate response to the disaster in the form of medical supplies or food or water and other essential items. This takes place in the immediate aftermath and is a crucial stage to regulating the damage and addressing the medical needs of victims in order to minimize mortality. Recovery efforts are more long-term, involving the rebuilding of infrastructure and restoration of life to a pre-disaster state. Recovery may also include economic restoration, which is essential to a country’s recuperation. (editing needed)
1.1.1 Importance of geographical knowledge in relief efforts
Following a disaster, the uncertainty of the surroundings may be heightened by factors such as the existence of chemical factories, or as in the case of Japan’s Tohoku 2011 earthquake, nuclear power plants. The result would be that any attempts at assessing the situation manually would be at extreme high risk, and calculating the damage to the nuclear facilities, challenging. However, if unaddressed, the problems could pose a nuclear threat on a national level in the long run. (HuffPost, 2011)
In such a situation, “GIS database can be accessed for damage assessment or to locate critical infrastructure such as chemical facility that needs to be inspected and secured.” (Selvavinayagam, 2008) Pictures or videos of the affected site can be dispatched to the relevant experts as the assessment is ongoing, and allow for efficient damage assessment, without compromising the safety of individuals.
With GIS, sharing of vital information is possible through databases. “Without this capability, emergency workers must gain access to a number of department managers, their unique maps, and their unique data. Most emergencies do not allow time to gather these resources. This results in emergency responders having to guess, estimate, or make decisions without adequate information. This costs time, money, and—in some cases—lives.” (Johnson, 2000)
1.2 What GIS entails /how GIS came about
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is any technology that is used to collect and manage basic geographic information. “A GIS is best defined as a system which uses a spatial database to provide answers to queries of a geographical nature. …The generic GIS thus can be viewed as a number of specialized spatial routines laid over a standard relational data base management system” (Goodchild, 1985).
More basic forms of geographical information are systems such as cartography and photozincography, existing as early as in the 19th Century. However, modern GIS technology involving computers is a relatively new concept, developed by Canadian Roger Tomlinson in the early 1960s.
What distinguishes the modern GIS from the geographic information systems of the past, is the capability of analyzing, sorting, collecting etc. with a pre-existing purpose. It “should be viewed as a process rather than as merely software or hardware. GIS are for making decisions. The way in which data is entered, stored, and analyzed within a GIS must mirror the way information will be used for a specific research or decision-making task.” (Lynch & Foote, 1995) This suggests that GIS actually has the capacity for certain ‘intelligence’, in the sense that it will be able to identify relevant information and process it into a form that is useful for a designated purpose. This kind of capability proves indispensible in a field such as disaster relief, where certain geographical features or changes may be telltale signs of further danger to rescuers. This reduces risk significantly for rescue efforts as the geographical safety can be almost ensured.
Another important feature that GIS has brought to the table is the ability to integrate the various features of the surrounding environment. The figure below illustrates exactly how this works:
Figure 2 (Foote & Lynch, 1995)
Different levels or aspects of the geography can be featured into the map presented by GIS, in order to portray higher levels of accuracy as well as increased clarity. GIS gain much of their power from being able to collate and cross-reference many types of data by location. (Foote & Huebner, 1995) In a disaster management setting, the features such as ‘roads’ and ‘bus routes’ reflected above are modified to represent the key information such as ‘roadblocks’ or small communities that are in need of immediate aid.
- 2. Historical Perspective
2.1 Obstacles to Disaster Relief
Dealing with the aftermath of a disaster is infinitely complex and difficult. As mentioned above, the constituents of response and recovery are numerous. In the attempt to address the issues raised by the two, rescuers without adequate geographical knowledge put themselves at risk.
Rescuers are forced to personally go onto the field to investigate the stability or instability of the area, the latter having a high probability of their demise. Even when the area appears to be stable, attempting to rescue victims trapped around the area may set off a precarious situation that went unnoticed to the human surface assessment capability.
Ultimately, the likelihood that aid will actually be administered with all parties unscathed is drastically low, and makes the entire disaster response process extremely costly, both financially as well as in terms of human lives.
Rebuilding efforts too, can be compromised from the lack of geographical knowledge. In Surabaya, Indonesia, the Sidoarjo mudflow threatened the lives of an entire village. Without adequate information, the villagers were informed that the mudflow would only affect half the village and hence rebuilt their homes in the ‘safe’ half. However, the inaccurate assessment resulted in widespread deaths and crippled the entire community as the mudflow eventually engulfed the village. If such inaccurate information continues to be perpetuated, there is little hope for reconstruction. However with GIS and other related technologies, there is little need for this to be the case.
2.2 Historical Attitude towards Disaster Relief and Inefficacy
Despite the understanding that natural disasters were not as prevalent in the past as they are today, it is surprising to note that records of disaster relief attempts are extremely limited. Moreover, addressing this issue did not seem to be a priority to many nations.
Considering man-made disasters, historically, the most significant form of disaster would be war. However it was almost absurd to think that a country suffering from the brutalities of war would be helped by rescue efforts or any other form of aid. Wartime aid, when given, was generally economic or political, and again most often used to halt the aggressors, hardly to rebuild the country. The most notable effort at response and recovery that resembles disaster relief of today would be the 1918 attempt by the League of Nations to restore Germany, which failed miserably. [cite]
In fact most disasters were kept covert affairs. In part, this can be attributed to the lack of capability in providing relief to the victims. Unlike today, where most governments instinctively reach outwards for aid, countries pre-1960s tended to adopt a policy of avoidance, sweeping the disasters under the rug until many years later. When accounts were later released, such as in the case of Tashkent, a former satellite state of the Soviet Union, they showed little success in ‘rescuing’, and revealed a lack of adequate analysis of disasters as well as planning of infrastructure. (Stronski, 2010)
Even in countries where accounts of disasters seem readily available, there are few records of rescue attempts, less so successful ones. The predominant mentality was that natural disasters could not be responded to effectively.
Echoes of the past can still be seen today, in countries such as Myanmar. The authoritarian ruling system highly parallels the past mentality of national pride and desire to protect the country’s image. As a result, the country does not address the disasters themselves, and external aid is refused. [cite]
This entire situation illustrates the need for a shift towards a more positive mentality towards success in combatting disasters, which will remove the psychological barriers to efforts. This is what GIS has begun to do, by presenting a positive and capable image of relief efforts through its effective management of disasters.
- 3. Current Situation:
“Once we rid ourselves of traditional thinking we can get on with creating the future.” — James Bertrand
3.1 Capabilities
GIS technology at the most basic level now allows us to view the geography of certain areas, and beyond, in excruciating detail. The depth and nature of individual aspects of the land are now accessible. “GIS data models accept the transferring of real world features to spatial data structure…it is possible to integrate in one system several types of natural features” (Godilano, 2004).
This enables much greater accuracy in calculating the risk of sending rescue teams, as well as assessing how much damage has been done. In addition, it “allows for the combination of the different kinds of spatial data, with non-spatial data, attribute data and uses them as useful information in the various stages of disaster management.” (Smara, Belhadj-Aissa & Belhadj-Aissa, 2005) This significantly aids in anticipating the challenges and the problems that rescuers will face on the field and thereby increases their ability to overcome these problems in order to administer aid.
It also improves efficiency of response, as “the closest (quickest) response units can be selected, routed, and dispatched to an emergency once the location is known. Depending on the emergency, a GIS can provide detailed information before the first units arrive.” (Johnson, 2000) This allows for a better gauge when administering immediate relief, and ensures that teams are not inaccurately informed, which could potentially worsen the situation. It also helps ensure that the aid reaching a certain community is tailored to their needs, improving quality of the relief effort.
The overall assessment of the land and its post-disaster features will also contribute to formulating concrete reliable steps to rebuilding structures and homes that was previously a very risky investment, with unsure safety. An example of disaster assessment can be found in Figure 3. The quicker infrastructure can be restored, the easier it will be to restore the economy and compensate for the economic damage that the disaster has brought to a specific community.
Figure 3 (USGS, 2011)
Ultimately, GIS has transformed disaster response and recovery from an insurmountable task into a series of complex data and analytical capabilities, which effectively presents disaster relief as having the possibility of success.
3.2 Recent Usage: Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina that swept New Orleans in 2005 was prepared for by the city. New Orleans was covered with technology known as ‘Accela GIS’ that linked the entire city and allowed government officials access to all the relevant geographical data. It allowed assessments of the city as well as individual residences, and “allowed home inspection data to be immediately uploaded into the City’s database. City officials were then able to carefully track progress and assess the damage of the city.”
After the data was collected, the officials were able to carry out effective decision-making with thorough knowledge of the situation, and thus could “determine which areas to prioritize” in order to ensure that the work carried out would be in areas that were the most immediate for recovery and preventing any worsening of damages.
With regards to recovery and rebuilding, “building damage information could be either downloaded by individuals to view as a damage report of their home or could be viewed on a map in combination with other existing GIS layers such as road and parcels in the city’s existing web-based GIS. This web-based access allowed displaced citizens with internet access the ability to learn about the status of their home or neighborhood.” (Webb & Hampton, 2005) This made information widely accessible and enabled residents to make informed decisions about their homes and the overall community.
3.2.1 Shortcomings
The technology required for the Accela GIS to work across the city however, is expensive, and available only to those who have internet access. Therefore this alienates the lower income families. For the effectiveness of this technology to be fully realized, state funding or community funding is required. In New Orleans, this was the case. However, in other countries across the globe, this may prove to be a much more significant obstacle to the distribution of GIS technology.
However, even with the information available, there was a lack of expertise in managing it, which resulted in the reduced effectiveness of at least one rescue attempt. (Sylves, 2008) Therefore in order to improve the feasibility of GIS, there needs to be widespread training in order to utilize it. However this too is expensive, and may require external funding. Most importantly, the potential and importance of GIS in the future needs to be recognized before anyone is going to be willing to invest their resources in it.
3.3 Global Impact of GIS
As mentioned above, the cost of implementation of GIS is relatively high. As such, being able to completely cover the world in the networks and technology required for GIS to work is somewhat unrealistic. However many countries have made attempts at utilizing GIS to address local disasters.
3.3.1 Bangladesh
Floods are common to Bangladesh, posing a significant problem to the locals, who are also faced with cyclones and other similar dangers. With reference to the Bangladesh Flood Action Plan (FAP) (ISPAN, 1995), the following points were identified addressing the utilization of GIS:
> Details have to be extremely accurate with providing GIS with data input from the various maps. If the details are even slightly inaccurate, this could mean that the GIS processing of the many data levels would result in a magnification of these errors and lead to inaccurate information being generated.
>There needs to be cooperation from disaster managers in order to ensure that the findings of GIS can be put into practice.
>GIS can be used to assess the feasibility of plans beforehand, not just to find out an action plan after the disaster has occurred. If the disaster is pre-empted, the geographical area can be mapped into include the likely effects of the disaster and hence a feasible disaster relief plan can be deduced from the data before the disaster even occurs.
3.3.2 Algeria
A general Assessment of disaster management strategies and the situation of disasters in Algeria, together with the capabilities of GIS led to the following conclusions:
> There has to be cooperation from the planners and managers to implement the suggested measures of GIS. Involving national policy is also suggested, as a framework for carrying out the disaster relief efforts in accordance with GIS findings. National policy ought to back up technology in order for effective implementation.
> The public should also be made aware of the knowledge gained from GIS, and involved in the disaster response process. If the public understands what is taking place, cooperation would be more likely, which would in turn increase the effectiveness of disaster relief.
3.3.3 Indian Ocean Earthquake/Tsunami
Leading company dealing with GIS, Esri, formulated a report on the Indian Ocean disaster and the relief efforts, providing succinct links to GIS. (Esri, 2006) Significant findings are as follows:
> “Critical infrastructure data that should be ready in advance includes transportation, political boundaries, telecommunications, electrical power, water, oil and gas, bank and finance, emergency services, and governments’ continuity information.” Even with information regarding the disaster, it remains meaningless unless there is infrastructure to support the implementation of suggested relief efforts.
> In this particular case, information received was ‘not being shared because of various political problems or lack of communication.’ If political issues are allowed to get in the way, they will only hamper disaster relief attempts as there is unnecessary conflict and may contribute to ‘unnecessary deaths’ that result from being caught in bureaucratic red tape. This cannot be the case when it comes to disaster relief as too much is at stake. GIS provides information that should be acted on, and political agenda should not be an obstacle to this.
>The public should be informed about the relief situation and developments, because crucial aid in rebuilding efforts comes from public support and donation.
> There was difficulty in information sharing between countries, as there are no ‘universal standards for GIS data, i.e. for allowing the easy transfer of data between countries and systems.’ (Meaden & Thang, 1996) Therefore GIS is currently being limited by inability to translate data. However it is still a relatively new technology and developments are constantly being made to improve its capabilities.
- 4. Future Considerations
The main hope for the future of GIS is that it will become more widespread and available for use in all countries, so as to avoid the traditional devastation and resulting crippling of countries that ‘disaster’ has meant in the past. At the rate GIS is consistently developing, this should become a reality in the near future. As noted from the Indian Ocean disaster, “to better respond to future disasters, countries need to work together at the regional and international levels ahead of time.” (Esri, 2006)
Aside from improving the existing reach of GIS however, the improvement to the actual technology itself and its uses ought to be significant, given the dynamic, rapidly developing nature of GIS today.
4.1 Additional Scope
It is anticipated that in the future, GIS will involve much more real-time situation monitoring and assessment and will need new kinds of tools that treat information as continually changing. [cite] This will increase reliability and usefulness of information even further, preventing an overlap of relief efforts to the same location once relief has already been administered. Furthermore, in the event of an aftershock or something akin to that, rescuers could be notified much sooner and prevent whatever risk there is to them, and divert precious time and effort to other rescue missions.
Another possibility of GIS’ advancement would be advancement together with analytical technology. Instead of merely being on location and attached to complicated data systems on the ground, it is possible that GIS will be able to latch on to existing satellite technology and be able to carry out monitoring and assessment from a mobile location. Currently, similar technologies to this would be used in the form of GPS, which uses satellite mapping. However, the level of depth and clarity that GIS provides to disaster relief cannot be replicated using current satellite mapping technology. With further technological advancement though, mobile, detailed assessment might be made possible. This would remove the need for laying expensive equipment on the ground before a disaster occurs in order to accurately assess the area. Instead, even previously unchartered areas will be able to be assessed from a mobile location, increasing ease and convenience.
While GIS has been very well used for short-term disasters, the possibility of using it to address long term problems existing in the world today is rather intriguing. Problems such as poverty, overpopulation, all constitute disasters due to the high mortality rates as well as the inability to address these problems by the governments, local or otherwise. Roger Tomlinson says ‘These problems are all concerned with the human relationship to the land, and this is where GIS can make its biggest contribution.’ (Baumann, 2009) Given the developing nature of GIS as a decision-making and planning tool, there is the tantalizing possibility that in time to come, spatial assessment of the situations combined with the semi-intelligence of problem-solving that is featured in GIS, will be able to suggest solutions for combating such issues.
4.2 External Influences on Disaster Relief and the Significance of GIS
As noted by Esri in the Indian Ocean disaster, ‘the political and national agenda will inevitably come into play when so many countries and their national well-being is involved.’
GIS data will be reflecting multiple views of multiple parties, and there will be the problem of reconciliation between the different viewpoints.
It is easy to suggest that GIS be used as a politically neutral tool, but as identified in the cases studied above, the presence of political support in the form of national policy in favour of GIS is essential in ensuring its effectiveness. Therefore before GIS can realize its full potential, all countries involved in a certain relief effort at least have to make attempts at cooperation for the common goal.
- 5. Conclusions
(still editing)
GIS has changed the game for disaster management so significantly that it can be held in part responsible for the continued efforts and the non-dismissal of attempts.
Without the presence of GIS, it would have made more sense for countries to give up on rescue missions altogether because of 1. The worsening severity of disasters and 2. The lack of adequate infrastructure. Therefore it salvaged efforts and gave man a fighting chance in minimalizing impact of disasters.
It is not merely an accessory that improves disaster management, it actually can claim some responsibility for the increased investment of countries and commitment of countries to the disaster cause.
THINGS I AM CONCERNED ABOUT:
-Historical perspective is out of point
-My argument is not relevant to GIS as a ‘game-changer’
(I didn’t include the references because it is a very long list)
Genetically Modified food somehow ended up being the focus of this lesson, with the topic being biobusiness and the agricultural industry. I have certainly not learned or heard so much about GM food before. I think many of us were unaware of just how common GM food already is in our supermarkets, and how much of a concern it really is becoming in our world.
‘Sustainability’ is probably a word that has appeared in every single one of our classes, and it seems like sustainability is almost the magical solution to the world’s problems. Basically if we can produce more than we can consume, we can keep our lives the way they are and have room to help the LEDCs.
In terms of agriculture, GM food can contribute to this. GM products can increase yield, productive efficiency etc. But they also come with a lot of uncertainties. I think it is too early for anyone to be completely certain of the safety of genetic modification. For all we know, effects of such products will only be seen later.
I don’t really see labeling as ameliorating the situation, because many times what is put on the label is very selective and tends to avoid telling the consumer anything of real use. Even if it is a rule or requirement to do so, some companies might take the liberty of ‘modifying’ data, which often goes unnoticed. Moreover, from the class poll, many people don’t really care about what they are eating as long as it tastes good, and there don’t seem to be any adverse effects. at least for the moment.
I’m ashamed to say I am one of those people. usually, what I eat doesn’t bother me. I have never been a picky eater, and as long as I have enough food I don’t really mind what kind of food it is. But this class has really made me think more about it: food and how important it could be for world issues! Since I have previously been on the fence about GM food, I think my inclination now is towards GM food, towards developing it more and seeing where this technology can actually take us. Especially seeing the tip of the iceberg of the potential GM products have, it is rather promising.
But I think the whole issue boils down to one thing: knowledge. The more knowledge we have about such relatively new technologies, the better we can manage them and use them to help the world situation at large. And the better that knowledge about such products can be disseminated, the more widely accepted they will be, which in turn is crucial to their effectiveness. It can even turn ignoramuses like me to see the green light.
This week we got into session 1 of biobusiness – healthcare. I think that healthcare is one of the most change-resistant industries, mostly because taking risks with the healthcare industry could potentially affect so many and nobody is willing to fail and bear the responsibility of worsening the healthcare situation.In this industry, even more than others, a comfortable cycle has been established, that few are ready to change.
This of course recalls the idea of falling stars and dominant players immediately. However, the healthcare industry, traditionally not having a profit motive, is slightly different from the other players we have considered thus far.
To me, at least, the healthcare industry appears to be a very sneaky one. Sneaky, in the sense that it has never had an explicitly profit oriented outlook and yet so much of what happens in the healthcare industry today is a result of a profit motive. For example, the patents on medication as we discussed in class. These patents are meant to protect the profits of large companies and prevent undercutting by companies who are able to produce the drug at a lower cost. While this is certainly a relevant concern, this prevents the medication from reaching the poor in LEDCs who might have a greater need for such medication but are unable to access them due to the high cost.
It is perhaps somewhat ironic that it has in fact become and extremely heartless industry, focusing largely on profit and being able to gain from the administration of treatment and medication. This is what is partially responsible for the resistance to new technologies that promise, and in fact may actually deliver new methods for medical services with increased effectiveness and lower cost. Thinking about this made me recall the movie ‘The pursuit of happyness’. In the movie the protagonist seeks to make a living through the sale of bone density scanners that are portable. Perhaps these are not the most revolutionary change out there, but they did promise to reduce operating costs and potentially increase convenience for the hospitals. However, his idea never quite took off, mainly because there was nothing wrong with the old system.
This attitude of complacency rules in many industries today. There is a reluctance to adapt new methods of doing things when the old methods have not exactly ‘failed’ us. However in most industries, companies stand the risk of falling behind as they can be sure that another company will adopt the new technology which would propel them ahead. However in the industry of healthcare, new inventions and technologies do not increase the profit but decrease it for healthcare administrators- leading to a somewhat opposite effect.
But the medical industry still has an obligation to overcome its reluctance to continue their R&D because they consider it ‘unnecessary’ cost. We would otherwise unfortunately be forced to subscribe to an inefficient method of healthcare administration, with the poor being inevitably exploited by the rich who have the power to regulate healthcare. The focus for the medical industry therefore should be on creating summit opportunities. That is the only way forward for healthcare, in order to increase its’ efficiency and effectiveness.
Unlike other industries, a failure to embrace technological advances and new methods will not penalise the medical industry itself, but the rest of the world who, without exception, depends on it at some point or the other. And this is definitely something we must work to prevent.
This class did seem a little dry for me, but the presentations this week were definitely outstanding. Our class saw the first 10/10 this week, after coming quite close to this in the past few sessions. Standards are getting higher and the result is impressive. The presentations were exceedingly informative, to the point where I felt that each presentation might possibly be extended into a lesson on its own.
The issues that are being raised for discussion are, likewise, becoming even more thought-provoking. I am quite sure that at least at some point in the last 10 years, many of us would have considered the appeal of immortality. Personally, I would rather not be immortal, even if it meant eternal youth, at the most basic level because it would be so boring. Even with the fast pace of technological development, I am sure that by some point, it would no longer seem as exciting as it does in the present. It was extremely interesting to hear other’s thoughts on the subject though, as to some people it is simply unthinkable that immortality would be refused.
These kind of discussions are what makes this subject so interesting, that technology is subject to so many viewpoints, similar and differing, and is almost never black and white. These are definitely what I look forward to every week – even just hearing the opinions being thrown around – and I am rarely disappointed.
Information and Communication Technology is a massive (to say the least) area of technology. It is also probably one that has seen the most, and the fastest developments in the past few years. Discussing the topic further with Mengxin brought me to recall an incident that made me realise this a couple of years ago. I was younger, broke and perfectly content to be using a block of a Nokia phone that still had the original version of ‘Snake’ (I kid you not). While I was overseas, I encountered a man dressed very shabbily, begging for some change from passers by- for food, he claimed. But awhile later, I spotted the same man a few streets down, discreetly checking an iPhone!
A little melodramatic and long-winded, but my point is- information and communication technology is virtually indispensable. We simply cannot live without it. It has infiltrated our lives and is most definitely going to continue to do so in the future. But at the same time, we haven’t even begun to capitalize on the potential ICT has to change/shape our world.
The idea of using ICT in alleviating poverty is one such example. When I clicked on the article for reading, I was wondering if the title was right. Perhaps it is just me, but as obvious as it seems now, using ICT to help people in poorer nations just didn’t seem like the most straightforward solution.
When we think of poverty we think that people need food, water, shelter, maybe education- but through a blackboard and chalk, not mobiles and computers. This can be in part attributed to the fact that there is little infrastructure available in certain less developed countries, making the use of ICT something of a hassle. But if ICT can be indeed put to use educating, improving communication etc, it will soon be bridging the economic gap and vastly improving living standards throughout the world. For now, at least to the masses, I believe that bringing ICT to the poverty-sticken is not a priority. But it should be. With a drastic mindset overhaul, the possibilities when ICT is put into action, are endless.
An innovation that really amazed me was Project Natal, and the creation of Milo, who seemed incredibly lifelike. Other than his obvious animated (pun not intended) appearance, he could have been merely another person on the other end of a video call from Claire. The idea that technology may no longer be simplistically programmed but has the capacity to be responsive and intuitive is something astounding. It’s something we should all be excited about, and maybe a little concerned too, if the legions of sci-fi movies are remotely accurate.
I also particularly liked the quote from Einstein, that ‘our technology has exceeded our humanity’. It is even more true today than it ever was. With technology today nearly anything is possible. But it is acceptable? ‘Acceptable’; this is bad phrasing, I know. But with every new innovation comes a slew of questions, decisions and circular debate. Especially in the case of ICT, which is integrated into most, if not, all areas of our lives today. Where do we draw the lines? Security, privacy, etc are major concerns as ICT keeps progressing. And yet we have an increasingly unclear picture of where the boundaries should be, which is, at the very least, mildly worrying.
As I have been writing, a picture of humanity and technology as intertwined entities, somewhat like a DNA’s helix structure presented itself in my mind. Perhaps technology has a little more headway at this point, but the two are undeniably progressing concurrently.
But the idea of ‘humanity’ is constantly evolving in response to the changes brought about by technology, the new ways of doing things and doing new things altogether. At the same time, technology may respond to changes in ‘humanity’ or human desires/needs – guidelines for what we as humankind wish to achieve. Hence the ‘intertwining’. (ref. need-driven/technology-driven technology)
In addition, an even more confusing dimension is present: technology as a tool of humanity. Using technology such as ICT to aid with humanitarian goals such as poverty, or making it subject to rules dictated by humanity.
From our class discussion it is easy to see that even among that small group of people, we cannot agree on how much is too much. So until we find a suitable balance, if one even exists, I hope we do not lose technology or humanity altogether.
i. Specific Innovation of Interest: GIS in the field of disaster relief.
Geographic information system (GIS) is a relative of web-mapping that allows for spatial planning and recognition of geographical features. In the field of disaster relief, this is essential in assessing and thereby addressing the changes wrought by a disaster, especially in the long-term. This paper will therefore seek to examine how GIS has revolutionized disaster relief efforts, and outline the future of GIS in this field.
ii. Rationale for Selecting this Innovation:
Disaster relief is an area that is becoming increasingly important in an era where we are beginning to realize that disaster prevention is not a possibility. With the ever-increasing number of natural disasters occurring across the globe, crisis management is steadily gaining increased ascendancy. In a world where virtually everything can be done for us by technology, it follows that in a disaster, where we are at our most vulnerable, technology should play a significant role in addressing the disaster and rebuilding efforts.
GIS is a technology instrumental to the field of disaster relief where there is limited accessibility to affected areas. GIS also facilitates communication between relief workers and victims of the disaster, as well as to headquarters of relief efforts and it increases the likelihood of aid reaching victims.
GIS has changed the landscape of disaster relief in the years since it has been a viable innovation, and is likely to continue to do so in the future.
iii. Proposed Approach to Development of Paper:
- Background/Introduction
-What GIS entails
-Disaster relief efforts : what is involved
-Importance of geographical knowledge in relief efforts
-How GIS can solve this problem/improve the situation
- Historical Perspective
-Recce missions
-Death/highly dangerous
-Limited of chances of aid actually being administered
- Current Situation
-Prior knowledge available
-Risks are calculable
-Better gauge to administer appropriate relief
-Easier to formulate concrete rebuilding steps because there is accurate damage assessment
- Future Considerations
-More extensive coverage, (not limited to the first world UNTIL disaster strikes)
– Whether it may be used to administer aid in addition to assessing damages.
– External influences on disaster relief, and the significance of GIS in future efforts
- Conclusions
- References
‘Nothing endures but change’ – Heraclitus
This week felt like something of a checkpoint that made us stop and look back momentarily on the past 4 lessons and evaluate what exactly we have been talking about in terms of ‘technology and world change’.
Over the past month, we have seen numerous factors that affect world change. Some of them have influenced change, some of them have hindered change, some of them have proved a catalyst to change. But for this lesson, we took a slightly more macro level approach and looked at the factors that drive world change.
But before I elaborate more on that, a little more about the nature of change. As we talked about in class, change can be either revolutionary or evolutionary. In my opinion, revolutionary change has become almost second nature to the world today. We expect the only changes to be epic, life-changing occurences that completely change the way we see things. We are looking for ideas, products that make our eyes sparkle and our minds go ‘wow’. Which makes me wonder- has revolutionary change become the new evolutionary change?
Let me explain. For the longest time, we expected technological advances to be small steps forward-from the phonograph to the record to CDs etc. But now we expect so much more, we expect analog appliances to jump into the digital age with the snap of our fingers. In other words, giant leaps for mankind are effectively the norm. So then, what makes something truly revolutionary? I wonder if I’m merely thinking too much and confusing myself. But since nothing seems to surprise us anymore…?
But anyway, back to change.
After class, I began wondering, what really makes change inevitable? I mean, we all easily agree that change is all around us, and that even as we are typing our blog entries week after week, it is highly possible that paradigms are shifting somewhere across the world. But why are we so liable to change? When it comes down to it, I believe that the reason for change will always be the ‘unreasonable man’. The one who is not merely satisfied with the status quo, but ventures forth to new horizons (to put it in a cliche, as usual).
Perhaps we can pinpoint varying drivers of world change such as climate change, changes in the geopolitical economic sphere, and so on. But essentially, man is the one who drives tangible change (for the most part). Be it in response to the aforementioned changes, or of a simple desire to do things differently, to be unreasonable.
Contrary to what most of us think, there are actually a great number of unreasonable men in the world. Many of us dream of changing the world. Someday, somehow. This is what leads to change leadership. Lofty visions, convictions and optimism. However, without change management, all the unreasonable man will ever be is unreasonable. With the adequate management, however, he becomes the awe-inspiring, heroic revolutionary.
I wonder if we could say then that technology facilitates change. Not necessarily and certainly not all the time, but perhaps in certain cases, technology could actually constitute change management. It helps translate visionary ideas into reality.
There will always be unreasonable men out there, looking around for opportunities to change the world; and the world will be constantly changing. So it is left to us then to decide whether we are eagles or ostriches. More often than not my escapist side takes over and I end up being a very simplistically pleased ostrich, at least momentarily. But if we really wish the world to progress and to reach the capabilities that we can with our available resources, then we’d best start learning to fly.
Something I stumbled across last week, a short film on the importance of sustainable development set to ‘The Scientist’ by Coldplay, sung by Willie Nelson.
(can’t resist anything remotely coldplay-related)
Tech, You're It. 